Farmers carry paddy from a field in Rangunia. The government recorded a rise in aman output but the price of the staple is still high.Photo: Zobaer Hossain Sikder
The Ministry of Agriculture has estimated record aman output at 1.31 crore tonnes this season, while millers claim a paddy supply shortfall pulls the staple price up.
The rice price has seen an uptick since early September 2009. Coarse rice was Tk 26-28 and medium quality rice was Tk 30-34 on Saturday.
In September last year, coarse rice was Tk 20-22 and medium quality rice was Tk 24-26, recording a 28 percent rise, according to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB).
“It appears that the rise in the price of rice is not linked to production. Our estimation is conservative and till date we have not received any indication of a fall in output,” Agriculture Secretary CQK Mustaq Ahmed told The Daily Star yesterday.
Economists say such a rise in aman output is welcome, but if DAE (Department of Agricultural Extension) estimates are correct, rice prices should not go up.
Traders may take advantage of the fact that global rice prices are on the rise and that it will be expensive for the government to procure rice from the international market, said economist Mahabub Hossain.
"Big millers may also hold back supply to create an artificial shortage in the market to encourage the price hike,” he said.
The DAE aman production estimates showed that aman output exceeded the target of 1.27 crore tonnes in fiscal year 2009-10.
The latest estimate stood at 1.28 crore tonnes in FY 2008-09, which is 2.34 percent higher than the previous aman production figure prepared by DAE.
“Aman output went up because of a rise in acreage, proper distribution of the monsoon and fewer pest attacks,” said Sayeed Ali, director general of DAE.
He said low rainfall levels encouraged farmers to plant aman paddy on low lands in some districts, such as Brahmanbaria and Habiganj, leading to an overall rise in acreage to about 55 lakh hectares, up from a target of 54 lakh hectares.
Free irrigation facilities extended by the government in the wake of low rainfall during the farming season also helped attain good output, he said.
Barisal, Khulna, Sylhet, Chittagong and Rangpur recorded better output in the imminent aman season, he added.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, which recorded aman production at 1.16 crore tonnes in FY 2008-09, is yet to publish its estimate for the current fiscal year.
Millers said paddy should be available for sale in the market, provided a bumper aman production, prices of which rose since the beginning of December last, riding on speculations of a shortfall in production.
Factors such as late rains, delayed farming and thereby low yield fuelled the speculation.
“I think there is a missing link in the calculation, as the supply of paddy remains low in comparison to demand,” said KM Layek Ali, convener of Bangladesh Rice Mills Association, a body of about 17,000 mills.
He said farmers usually sell large quantities of paddy in January to get money to buy inputs for boro crop.
“The government should undertake a survey to examine how much paddy is coming to the market to be sold,” Ali said, denying any rice hoarding to create artificial shortfalls.
“The government should check whether we hoarded rice,” he said, linking inadequate supply to the hike in rice prices.
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